The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2024, published by IEP, provides a comprehensive overview of terrorism trends and their global impact. The latest report highlights significant shifts in terrorism patterns, emphasizing both regional transformations and emerging threats. Below is an in-depth analysis of the findings from the report.
The Global Terrorism Index 2024 (GTI) is the eleventh edition of this comprehensive report. It provides an in-depth analysis of global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012, leveraging data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. The 2024 GTI highlights key developments in terrorism-related fatalities, regional dynamics, and shifts in terrorist activity.
Increase in Deaths but Decline in Attacks
In 2023, terrorism-related deaths rose by 22%, totaling 8,352 fatalities — the highest level since 2017. Despite this rise, deaths remain 23% lower than the 2015 peak.
Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, fatalities still increased by 5%.
Contrarily, the number of incidents fell by 22% to 3,350 attacks, indicating that terrorism has become more concentrated and lethal.
Regional and Country-Specific Trends
Pakistan recorded the most incidents globally, with 490 attacks.
Burkina Faso ranked first in the GTI, marking the first time since the index began that Afghanistan or Iraq did not top the list.
Burkina Faso witnessed 2,000 deaths from 258 incidents, representing nearly 25% of global fatalities.
Deaths increased by 68%, despite attacks decreasing by 17%.
The October 7th Hamas-led attack in Israel was the largest single terrorist attack since 9/11, causing 1,200 deaths.
Israel faced massive retaliatory consequences, with 25,000 Palestinians killed by February 2024.
Improvements were noted in Iraq and Afghanistan:
Iraq fell out of the worst ten countries for the first time, recording fewer than 100 deaths.
Afghanistan saw an 84% drop in deaths and a 75% reduction in incidents since 2007.
Terrorist Groups and Activities
The Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organizations for the ninth consecutive year, responsible for 1,636 deaths — a 17% drop compared to the previous year.
Other major groups included Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Hamas, and al-Shabaab.
IS conducted attacks in 20 countries in 2023, down from 30 in 2020, signaling a reduction in its operational footprint.
Rising Lethality and Intensification of Terrorism
The lethality rate increased to 2.5 fatalities per attack, compared to 1.6 in 2022, the highest rate since 2015.
Active terrorist groups decreased to 66 in 2023, down from 141 in 2009, reflecting fewer but more lethal groups.
Regional Impact of Terrorism
Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and South Asia accounted for 94% of terrorism deaths.
Sahel Region in Africa emerged as the new epicenter of terrorism, witnessing 47% of global fatalities.
Deaths in the Sahel have risen by 2,860% over 15 years.
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger dominate fatalities, exacerbated by coups, weak governance, and fragile regional alliances.
Terrorism in the West
Attacks in the West fell to their lowest level in 15 years, recording 23 incidents — a 55% decrease from the prior year.
The United States recorded 16 attacks, most linked to far-right extremists.
Deaths in the West dropped by 22% to 21 fatalities, yet concerns remain about political instability and future threats in 2024.
Conflict and Terrorism Linkages
Over 90% of attacks and 98% of deaths occurred in conflict zones.
Fatality rates in conflict areas averaged 2.7 per attack, compared to 0.48 in non-conflict regions.
Organized Crime and Terrorism Nexus
Particularly evident in Sahel, terrorist groups co-opt criminal economies, leveraging kidnappings, ransom demands, and illicit trade.
Socio-Economic and Political Factors
In OECD countries, terrorism correlated with factors like youth unemployment, military spending, and media distrust.
In non-OECD nations, corruption, internal violence, and regional conflicts were stronger predictors.
The ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict raises the risk of further terrorist attacks in MENA and regions perceived as supportive of Israel.
The deteriorating security environment in the Sahel may lead to intensified violence.
With record elections scheduled globally, political tensions could spur further attacks, especially targeting Jewish institutions in Europe.
While terrorism remains less deadly than armed conflicts, homicides, and suicides, its psychological and geopolitical impacts make it a potent force. The Global Terrorism Index 2024 highlights how terrorism is becoming more concentrated, lethal, and regionally focused, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Policymakers must address root causes, such as governance failures, economic disparities, and political instability, to curb this evolving threat. The year ahead poses challenges but also opportunities for global cooperation and resilience-building in the face of rising extremism.
Increase in Terrorism-Related Deaths
Terrorism-related deaths surged by 22%, reaching 8,352 fatalities in 2023. This marks the highest level of terrorism deaths since 2017, reflecting a troubling resurgence in the lethality of terrorist activities. Despite fewer attacks, the increased fatalities point to more deadly and targeted incidents.
Decline in the Number of Attacks
While the number of terrorist incidents fell by 22% to 3,350, the reduction in attack frequency did not translate to a lower impact. The number of countries reporting terrorism-related incidents also dropped to 50, indicating a geographical concentration of attacks.
Western Democracies and Terrorism
In 2023, the United States accounted for 76% of terrorism-related deaths within Western democracies. Despite this, the total number of incidents in Western democracies reached a 15-year low, suggesting localized yet severe attacks.
Shift in Terrorism Epicenter
The epicenter of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East to the Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. This region now accounts for over 50% of global terrorism-related deaths, reflecting the escalating instability and violence in parts of Africa.
Burkina Faso: A Case Study
Burkina Faso experienced the most severe impact from terrorism, with deaths increasing by 68% despite a 17% decrease in the number of attacks. This highlights a disturbing trend where fewer but more lethal attacks are becoming the norm.
Iraq’s Remarkable Improvement
Iraq recorded the most significant improvement in combating terrorism over the past decade. Deaths from terrorism plummeted by 99% since their peak in 2007, with just 69 deaths reported in 2023. This showcases the effectiveness of sustained counterterrorism efforts in stabilizing previously volatile regions.
Concentration of Impact
Terrorism’s impact has become increasingly localized, with 10 countries accounting for 87% of total terrorism-related deaths. This concentration underscores the disparity in terrorism’s global footprint, where some regions face extreme challenges while others experience relative peace.
Link Between Conflict and Terrorism
Over 90% of terrorist attacks and 98% of terrorism deaths in 2023 occurred in conflict zones. This emphasizes the strong correlation between armed conflict and terrorism, where instability and lawlessness create fertile ground for extremist activities.
Africa’s Rising Vulnerability: The Central Sahel region has become a focal point for terrorism, driven by insurgencies and weak governance structures. Addressing poverty, governance, and security gaps is critical to reversing this trend.
Middle East Stabilization: Iraq’s dramatic improvement demonstrates that sustained counterterrorism strategies, international cooperation, and rebuilding efforts can significantly reduce terrorism.
Western Democracies’ Challenges: Despite a decline in incidents, Western nations, particularly the United States, remain vulnerable to isolated yet impactful attacks, necessitating vigilance and adaptive security measures.
The Global Terrorism Index 2024 highlights a dual narrative—while certain regions, like Iraq, have made remarkable strides in combating terrorism, others, particularly in Africa, face rising threats. Policymakers must adopt region-specific strategies, focusing on conflict prevention, economic development, and counter-extremism programs to address the root causes of terrorism.
Investing in global cooperation, intelligence-sharing, and community resilience remains vital to countering terrorism’s evolving nature. As terrorism continues to adapt, a proactive and multifaceted approach will be crucial in ensuring global security and stability.
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